Mexico’s merchandise trade surplus widened substantially in June as rapid growth in non-oil exports outpaced the expansion of imports, reinforcing the role of manufacturing and United States demand in supporting the country’s external sector. Preliminary figures released Monday by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, known as INEGI, showed a surplus of $4.09 billion, compared with $2.26 billion in May. The monthly improvement was entirely attributable to the non-oil balance, which generated a $7.49 billion surplus. Mexico’s petroleum trade remained in deficit, and that shortfall widened to $3.40 billion from $2.64 billion in the previous month.

Total merchandise exports reached $72.55 billion in June, representing a 34.4% increase from the corresponding month of 2025. Imports totaled $68.46 billion, rising 28.0%. The faster expansion of exports lifted the headline surplus despite strong growth in purchases of production inputs, consumer merchandise and energy products from abroad. The figures were significantly higher than the values recorded in May, when exports totaled $69.54 billion and imports stood at $67.29 billion. Because the data are reported in current U.S. dollars, the annual rates reflect changes in prices as well as underlying shipment volumes and product composition.

The central feature of the report was the strength of non-oil exports. These shipments rose 34.1% year over year to $70.46 billion and accounted for more than 97% of Mexico’s total exports during the month. Petroleum exports increased at a faster annual rate of 43.4%, but their value was much smaller at $2.09 billion. On the import side, non-oil purchases rose 27.1% to $62.97 billion, while petroleum imports increased 39.8% to $5.49 billion. The resulting contrast—a large non-oil surplus alongside a persistent energy deficit—continued to define Mexico’s overall trade position.

Manufacturing remained the principal engine of export growth. Manufactured shipments increased 35.3% from a year earlier to $67.22 billion, representing nearly 93% of all merchandise exports in June. Within that category, automotive exports rose 7.6% to $17.56 billion, while non-automotive manufactured exports surged 48.8% to $49.65 billion. The divergence showed that the month’s export performance was not primarily an automobile story. Electrical and electronic equipment, mining and metallurgy products, and food, beverage and tobacco shipments were among the categories contributing to the broader manufacturing increase.

INEGI reported annual export gains of 40.9% for mining and metallurgy products, 19.7% for electrical and electronic equipment, and 14.5% for food, beverages and tobacco. Automotive shipments continued to expand, but at a considerably slower rate than the rest of manufacturing. That pattern may be economically significant because it suggests Mexico’s export base is benefiting from activity across a wider group of industrial supply chains rather than relying exclusively on vehicle assembly and auto-parts production. Non-automotive manufacturing exports accounted for more than two-thirds of the country’s merchandise exports during the month.

Demand from the United States remained the dominant source of non-oil export growth. Non-oil shipments to the U.S. increased 35.8% from June 2025, while exports to the rest of the world rose 25.0%. Automotive exports to the United States advanced 7.0%, compared with an 11.3% increase in automotive sales to other destinations. Other non-oil exports to the U.S.—a category that excludes vehicles—jumped 48.9%. The comparable category for the rest of the world increased 30.8%, demonstrating that the manufacturing upswing was geographically broad but still heavily concentrated in Mexico’s northern trading partner.

The concentration remains substantial. During the first six months of 2026, the United States received 84.16% of Mexico’s non-oil exports. Automotive goods shipped to the U.S. represented 20.23% of total non-oil exports, while other U.S.-bound merchandise accounted for 63.93%. Exports to the rest of the world represented the remaining 15.84%. The figures underscore Mexico’s deep integration with U.S. production and consumption networks, which provide a large and geographically accessible market but also leave Mexican trade performance sensitive to changes in U.S. industrial demand, consumer spending and trade policy.

Automotive exports remained comparatively subdued over the first half despite their June improvement. Vehicle and auto-parts shipments to the United States declined 2.7% year over year during the January-to-June period, while automotive exports to other countries increased 24.0%. By contrast, other non-oil exports to the United States expanded 38.5% during the half-year period. The data therefore point to a two-speed export sector: a mature automotive complex showing modest or uneven growth and a faster-expanding non-automotive segment encompassing electronics, machinery, metal products, processed foods and other manufactured goods.

Outside manufacturing, performance was mixed. Agricultural and fishing exports declined 2.8% year over year to $1.66 billion in June. INEGI identified particularly large decreases in exports of melons, watermelons and papayas, green coffee, avocados, citrus fruit, grapes and raisins. Those declines were partly offset by strong increases in pepper exports and shipments of fresh legumes and vegetables. Non-oil mining exports reached $1.58 billion, rising 37.3%. Although agriculture and extraction are important for individual regions and commodity markets, together they remained small relative to Mexico’s industrial export platform.

Petroleum exports totaled $2.09 billion, comprising approximately $1.60 billion of crude-oil sales and $491 million of other petroleum products. The average price of Mexico’s export crude blend was $82.30 a barrel, down $19.02 from May but $19.27 above its level in June 2025. Export volume increased to 648,000 barrels a day from 616,000 barrels in May and 520,000 a day one year earlier. Higher annual prices and greater volumes helped lift the value of petroleum exports, but energy imports remained much larger, preserving Mexico’s structural petroleum trade deficit.

Imports presented a picture of continued industrial demand alongside comparatively modest growth in investment goods. Purchases of intermediate goods—the components, raw materials and other inputs used in domestic production—rose 30.9% from a year earlier to $54.24 billion. Non-oil intermediate-goods imports climbed 31.1%, while petroleum-related intermediate purchases increased 27.8%. Intermediate goods represented almost four-fifths of Mexico’s total imports during the first half, reflecting the import-intensive structure of manufacturing operations that process foreign components before selling finished or partially finished products abroad.

Consumer-goods imports increased 23.5% to $9.39 billion. Non-oil consumer imports rose 15.3%, while petroleum consumer products—including gasoline and butane and propane gas—jumped 66.0%. Capital-goods imports, which include machinery and equipment used to expand productive capacity, increased 8.8% to $4.83 billion. The slower capital-goods growth compared with intermediate purchases suggests that much of the import expansion was linked to current production requirements rather than an equally rapid acceleration in new industrial investment. Capital goods accounted for only 7.3% of imports during the first six months.

Seasonally adjusted figures offered additional evidence that the June surplus improvement was not solely a calendar-driven movement. The adjusted trade surplus widened to $3.84 billion from $1.03 billion in May. The adjusted non-oil surplus increased to $6.78 billion from $3.97 billion, while the petroleum deficit was nearly unchanged at $2.94 billion. Total exports rose 1.32% from the previous month, including a 1.52% gain in non-oil shipments and a 4.77% decline in petroleum exports. Manufactured exports increased 2.95%, with automotive shipments rising 6.18% and non-automotive manufacturing exports advancing 1.89%.

Adjusted imports moved in the opposite direction, falling 2.78% from May. Non-oil imports declined 2.85%, while petroleum imports decreased 1.99%. Intermediate-goods imports dropped 4.14%, and capital-goods imports edged down 0.36%. Consumer-goods imports, however, increased 4.32%. The combination of rising exports and declining imports mechanically widened the monthly balance. It also complicates the economic interpretation: stronger exports are supportive of output, but the fall in imported industrial inputs could indicate inventory adjustment, monthly volatility or some moderation in future production demand if it persists.

For the first half of 2026, Mexico posted a cumulative merchandise trade surplus of $9.86 billion, up from $1.43 billion in the first six months of 2025. Exports increased 24.6% to $389.72 billion, while imports rose 22.0% to $379.87 billion. The non-oil surplus reached $25.20 billion, more than offsetting a petroleum deficit of $15.34 billion. The scale of the improvement means external trade was in a more favorable nominal position entering the second half, although the contribution to inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will depend on changes in trade volumes and prices rather than dollar values alone.

The composition of first-half exports further demonstrated Mexico’s dependence on manufacturing. Manufactured goods represented 91.3% of total export value, agricultural goods accounted for 3.0%, non-oil extractive products represented 2.9%, and petroleum products made up 2.8%. Manufactured exports increased 25.8% from a year earlier to $355.90 billion. Non-automotive shipments rose 37.6%, while automotive exports were only 1.0% higher. That imbalance highlights the importance of electronics, electrical equipment, metal products, machinery, food processing and other industrial categories in driving the 2026 export expansion.

The import mix also illustrates the two-way nature of Mexico’s participation in regional and global production networks. Intermediate goods accounted for 79.9% of imports in the January-to-June period, followed by consumer goods at 12.8% and capital goods at 7.3%. A large portion of the components entering Mexico are incorporated into manufactured products that are later exported. As a result, rapid import growth does not necessarily signal weaker domestic competitiveness; it can accompany stronger factory production and exports. The key economic question is whether Mexico continues to expand the domestic value added embedded in those export flows.

June’s figures provide a constructive signal for Mexico’s external accounts, but several qualifications remain. The data are preliminary and may be revised after additional customs and administrative information becomes available. Nominal annual growth rates can also be affected by commodity prices, exchange-rate movements, differences in working days and unusually weak or strong comparison periods. The concentration of exports in the U.S. market remains both an advantage and a vulnerability, while the petroleum deficit continues to absorb a significant share of the surplus generated by manufacturing.

The next trade release, scheduled for August 27, will show whether the sharp June expansion was sustained into the third quarter. Continued strength in non-automotive exports would provide evidence that Mexico’s industrial export cycle is broadening, while renewed growth in capital-goods imports could indicate greater investment in future capacity. Conversely, a prolonged decline in seasonally adjusted intermediate-goods imports could temper the positive interpretation. For now, the June report shows that vigorous non-oil export growth was sufficient to widen the trade surplus despite strong imports and a larger energy shortfall.