As the U.S. government shutdown continues to halt official economic reporting, private sector data has stepped in to fill the void — and the results aren’t encouraging. According to fresh analysis from investment powerhouse Carlyle Group, employment growth in September was nearly stagnant, signaling that the post-pandemic recovery may be losing steam.

Carlyle’s internal figures showed a modest increase of just 17,000 jobs during the month. That’s even lower than the 22,000 jobs added in August, based on the most recent figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). With the BLS closed and all data releases suspended amid political gridlock between Congress and the White House, economists are increasingly turning to alternative datasets to gauge the economy’s direction.

Wall Street’s scramble for alternative economic indicators

With traditional government data frozen, financial institutions are leveraging their private resources to monitor labor trends. Carlyle’s numbers align closely with other private-sector findings suggesting a slowdown in hiring.

Payroll services giant ADP reported that the private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September. The company attributed part of that decline to adjustments made after earlier BLS revisions, but the underlying signal was clear — job creation is slowing.

Similarly, a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a firm that tracks corporate employment trends, revealed a mixed picture: while layoffs eased slightly in September, plans for future hiring hit their lowest level since 2009 — the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

This drop in planned hiring reflects the uncertainty many companies face amid rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, and concerns about consumer demand. Businesses appear to be tightening budgets and delaying expansion until the broader economic outlook becomes clearer.

A mixed economic picture emerges

Despite weak employment data, Carlyle’s report contained some positive signs elsewhere in the economy. The firm estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in September, suggesting the economy continues to expand moderately even as hiring slows.

Meanwhile, business investment rose at a 4.8% annualized pace over the past three months, indicating that companies are still spending on infrastructure and capital improvements — perhaps a sign of long-term confidence.

On the inflation front, Carlyle found that energy prices dropped by 3.8%, offering some relief to consumers, while services excluding shelter, a metric closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 3.3%. These figures could support the Fed’s view that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, potentially influencing future decisions on interest rates.

Carlyle said its insights were drawn from an “expansive global portfolio” encompassing 277 companies, 694 real estate investments, and 730,000 employees worldwide — giving the firm a broad, real-time snapshot of economic performance across multiple industries.

Diverging views on job market health

Not all private estimates were as pessimistic as Carlyle’s. Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggested that “underlying job growth” remained more resilient, citing their internal tracker, which pointed to a gain of around 80,000 jobs in September.

Even so, Goldman acknowledged a shifting labor market dynamic: the number of available workers is now surpassing the number of open positions — a reversal not seen in a decade. That imbalance could help cool wage growth, a key driver of inflation, but it also signals that the once red-hot labor market is beginning to cool.

Consumer sentiment turns cautious

Beyond Wall Street, American workers themselves are showing growing concern about the job market. A New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday revealed that 41.1% of respondents expect the unemployment rate to rise within the next year — a two-point increase from August.

The share of people who believe they could lose their jobs in the coming 12 months also edged up to 14.9%, indicating heightened anxiety amid economic uncertainty.

However, there was a small glimmer of optimism: 47.4% of respondents said they believed they could find a new job within three months if they were laid off, up from 44.9% in August. This suggests that, while Americans are wary of job security, they still have some faith in the broader labor market’s ability to absorb displaced workers.

The broader implications

Economists say the diverging data underscores how difficult it is to interpret the U.S. economy in real time — especially without access to government reports. The shutdown has delayed a range of key releases, from payroll data to consumer spending and inflation reports, leaving markets to rely on private-sector proxies.

“Right now, we’re essentially flying blind,” said one economist familiar with the private data models. “The U.S. labor market has been remarkably resilient, but the signs of fatigue are becoming more pronounced.”

The muted job growth reported by Carlyle could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its cautious approach. A cooling job market could ease inflationary pressure, but policymakers remain wary of over-tightening monetary policy and triggering a deeper slowdown.

A turning point for the U.S. economy

The September data may mark a critical turning point for the post-pandemic recovery. While GDP growth and investment remain positive, sluggish hiring and cautious sentiment suggest that the economy’s momentum is uneven.

If the government shutdown persists, economists warn that uncertainty could further weigh on both business and consumer confidence. The longer the data blackout continues, the harder it will be for policymakers and investors to make informed decisions.

For now, the message from private data providers like Carlyle and Goldman Sachs is clear: the U.S. labor market is losing steam, even if the broader economy continues to expand modestly.

As Washington struggles to resolve its political stalemate, America’s economic narrative will increasingly depend on private institutions — and their ability to accurately capture what’s happening beyond the shuttered doors of the BLS.