Andrew Ross Sorkin
Investors eager to get a stake in OpenAI may need to exercise patience, as a public offering from the AI powerhouse is not expected for several more years, according to Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital. Yet those who entered the AI-driven IPO market in 2025 have already seen substantial returns, highlighting the strong investor appetite for companies leveraging artificial intelligence.
Since the stock market low on April 8—triggered by concerns over President Trump’s trade war—the Renaissance IPO ETF has surged nearly 50%, almost doubling the gains of the broader S&P 500 Index. This remarkable rebound has prompted many investors to question whether the momentum can persist or if the IPO market is showing early signs of unsustainable enthusiasm, reminiscent of past bubbles.
Kennedy, whose firm specializes in IPO analysis, notes that the near-term trajectory of the IPO market is likely to resemble a “return to normalcy” rather than a repeat of the frenzied activity seen during the COVID-era IPO boom of 2020 and 2021. That period, he explained on CNBC’s “ETF Edge,” witnessed unprecedented deal-making, with an overwhelming number of pre-profit companies entering public markets—not only through traditional IPOs but also via a wave of SPAC offerings. Kennedy described those times as “crazy levels,” emphasizing the scale of risk taken by investors chasing hot market trends.
Comparing today’s environment with historical trends, Kennedy likens the current IPO resurgence to the period following the 2008 financial crisis, particularly the five years from 2014 to 2019, when IPO activity steadily picked up. Even a sustained pace similar to that stretch, he said, would feel exceptionally active to market participants who have witnessed a quieter period in the past few years.
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, underscores that the divergence between IPO returns since April and the broader stock market highlights the role of investor sentiment. “When animal spirits are high, it tends to be good for IPOs,” Geraci said on “ETF Edge,” referring to the psychology-driven aspects of market performance. He pointed to two notable 2025 deals in the AI and crypto sectors—Coreweave and Circle—as examples of how thematic excitement can accelerate returns.
“Circle has seen significant gains since going public, and Coreweave has posted huge returns as well. For companies in sectors like AI and crypto, where investor interest is already high, this creates a powerful tailwind,” Geraci explained.
The rise of AI and crypto-themed IPOs has also provided a boost to the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry. Geraci highlighted an extraordinary year for inflows into spot crypto ETFs, totaling $26 billion, with bitcoin ETFs accounting for $19 billion and ether ETFs taking in $7 billion. Just in July, investors poured $6 billion into bitcoin funds and $5.5 billion into ether ETFs, reflecting sustained enthusiasm for digital assets.
While Circle has given back some of its early post-IPO gains, it remains up roughly 50% for the year prior to its most recent earnings report, which triggered another uptick in its stock price. Kennedy emphasized Circle’s broader influence, noting, “There’s a saying on Wall Street: when ducks are quacking, feed them. Circle really accelerated the timeline for many crypto companies that were waiting to go public.”
Among the next anticipated crypto IPOs is Bullish, a crypto exchange backed by Peter Thiel, which recently increased the size of its offering, suggesting a potential $5 billion valuation. Kennedy also pointed to other major players in the crypto space likely to enter public markets, including Grayscale, Gemini, Kraken, and Ripple. “There are several names we are watching closely,” he said.
The fintech sector beyond crypto is also poised for renewed IPO activity. Klarna, a leading “buy now, pay later” company, is expected to move forward with its public offering in the fall after multiple delays. “They appear to be quite definitive about that timing,” Kennedy noted. Other delayed offerings, including StubHub, are now preparing to test the market, with a September launch on the horizon.
Even companies that have already gone public, such as Coreweave, continue to demonstrate remarkable growth. Despite a pullback from its post-IPO highs, Coreweave’s stock remains up approximately 250% since its debut. Kennedy suggested that pre-IPO AI companies, many of which are waiting for the right market conditions, could contribute further momentum to the IPO landscape. He remarked that the current environment—where AI companies can achieve billion-dollar valuations simply by declaring themselves operational—is extraordinary, but ultimately beneficial for maintaining a steady flow of IPOs over the coming years.
While an OpenAI IPO may still be several years away, potentially not arriving until 2028 or 2029, other AI-related companies are already accessing public markets. Firms such as design platform Figma and medtech company Heartflow incorporate AI into their core operations, even if they are not developing large language models themselves. Kennedy highlighted that these companies demonstrate the broader trend of AI integration across industries, signaling opportunities for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven growth beyond the marquee names.
The enthusiasm surrounding AI IPOs is emblematic of a broader market dynamic, where investor sentiment and sector-specific excitement can significantly influence public offerings. The performance of Coreweave, Circle, and upcoming fintech IPOs illustrates the potential for substantial returns, particularly for companies positioned in high-interest areas like artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. Analysts like Kennedy and Geraci stress that while caution is warranted, the overall environment remains promising, with a steady cadence of IPOs likely to continue through the late 2020s.
Moreover, the current surge in IPO activity is not limited to AI and crypto alone. Traditional technology and fintech firms are also returning to public markets, capitalizing on favorable investor sentiment. This resurgence reflects both pent-up demand from previously delayed offerings and a renewed willingness among institutional and retail investors to embrace innovation-driven companies.
Kennedy emphasized that the next few years could witness a “healthy, sustainable” IPO market, one that balances investor enthusiasm with measured growth, avoiding the extremes of the 2020–2021 boom. Even as OpenAI’s public debut remains distant, the broader AI sector continues to create opportunities for investors to participate in transformative technology, highlighting a trend that may reshape IPO activity for years to come.
In summary, the IPO market in 2025 demonstrates both the potential rewards and the underlying risks of investing in emerging technology sectors. The gains seen in AI- and crypto-related offerings reflect a combination of high investor interest and strategic positioning, while analysts caution that a return to normalized market conditions is likely. With a robust pipeline of pre-IPO companies and delayed offerings re-entering the market, investors can expect continued opportunities, even as some of the most anticipated IPOs, like OpenAI, remain on the horizon. The integration of AI into diverse industries, from design and medtech to fintech and beyond, ensures that the IPO landscape will remain dynamic and appealing for years, offering both growth potential and exposure to cutting-edge innovation.
