For decades, government shutdowns have created plenty of political drama in Washington, but their impact on the economy and financial markets has typically been limited. This time, however, the situation may take a more serious turn.

The difference stems from former President Donald Trump’s recent warning that some federal government employees furloughed during a shutdown could be laid off permanently. If he moves forward with this threat — and manages to overcome the legal battles that would almost certainly follow — the consequences could stretch far beyond the usual short-term disruptions.

According to Michael McLean, a senior public policy analyst at Barclays, this shutdown might not mirror previous episodes. He explained that making furloughs permanent would be “a significant departure from past practice” and could add a new layer of uncertainty to the economic outlook.

Historically, the economic effects of shutdowns have been minimal. Although stock markets sometimes dip during these standoffs, they generally rebound quickly. Economists estimate the cost to growth at roughly 0.1 percentage point of GDP per week of closure. Even the longest shutdown, which lasted 35 days between late 2018 and early 2019, was a relatively small hit to a $30 trillion economy. These temporary losses are typically recovered within subsequent quarters.

This time, however, the labor market is already under pressure. The Washington, D.C. area — home to a large concentration of federal employees — has been struggling since the earlier layoffs encouraged by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency advisory board. Normally, nonessential employees are furloughed during a shutdown but return to work once it ends. Trump, however, stated in an interview with NBC News that many of these positions could be permanently cut.

If this happens, the ripple effects could show up in official employment data. Nomura economist David Seif noted that the impact could be felt in the October jobs report, released in November, potentially hitting the labor market harder than in previous shutdowns.

The situation could also create complications for federal data collection. The United States Department of Labor has announced that most of its operations would halt during the shutdown. That includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes crucial reports such as the monthly jobs numbers. The agency warned that data releases could be delayed, and data quality might decline as a result.

A delay in the release of the consumer price index could also affect cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security recipients. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve System depends on BLS data for making key decisions on interest rates and other monetary policy matters. If official statistics are unavailable, the Fed may have to rely on private sector data to guide its policy.

The 2013 shutdown provides a useful comparison. At that time, the September jobs report was pushed back to October 22, and the consumer price index was delayed by two weeks. While analysts like Mark Cabana, head of rates strategy at Bank of America, believe that the overall economic effects would likely remain contained, prolonged delays could create more uncertainty for policymakers.

Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, echoed that view. She noted that while the broader economic impact may be mild, the effect on individual households could be serious. Federal employees and contractors placed on furlough would face immediate financial strain. “When households are forced to go without income, even for a week, it can set back their financial stability significantly,” she explained.

While most government shutdowns have been more political spectacle than economic crisis, this one has the potential to disrupt both — especially if permanent job cuts become part of the equation.