Wall Street is turning its attention to Thursday’s release of the November Consumer Price Index, a report that carries added significance because it will be the first official inflation data investors have seen since the conclusion of last month’s historic U.S. government shutdown.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the CPI, which measures changes in the prices consumers pay for a broad basket of goods and services, to show a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.1%. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation is projected to come in slightly lower, at an annual pace of 3.0%.

However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has already cautioned that the report will be incomplete. The agency confirmed that it will not publish month-over-month changes for November 2025 where October data are missing, after the October inflation report was canceled during the shutdown. As a result, September’s CPI figures remain the most recent fully released data, showing both headline and core inflation running at 3.0% on an annual basis.

Market psychology could play an outsized role in how investors react. José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, noted that crossing from a “three handle” back into the “two handle” range could carry symbolic weight for markets. Although consensus forecasts cluster around 3%, Torres expects both headline and core inflation to land slightly below expectations, at around 2.9%, while acknowledging that the headline figure could reasonably fall anywhere between 2.9% and 3.1%.

A 2.9% reading, in his view, could provide a welcome boost to equities as the year draws to a close. Torres believes such a result could help set the stage for a seasonal Santa Claus rally and also influence expectations for monetary policy in 2026. The Federal Reserve currently projects one interest rate cut next year, and a softer inflation print would reinforce that outlook.

According to Torres, keeping inflation in the 2% range instead of seeing it drift higher would strengthen the case for additional easing. As the final CPI report of 2025, the November data could shape expectations well into the coming year.

Not everyone expects a clear or decisive signal from this release. Some strategists caution that even a small deviation from forecasts is unlikely to trigger a dramatic market response. Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, argues that a 0.1 percentage point difference in either direction would not be enough to move markets in a major way, nor would it immediately change the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-dependent stance.

She also emphasized that this CPI report comes with unusual complications. The lack of complete month-over-month data and uncertainty around when the BLS was able to resume data collection both limit the clarity of the results. Fernandez described the upcoming release as far from “clean,” noting that the circumstances surrounding the shutdown make interpretation more difficult than usual.

The federal government officially reopened on November 12, after President Donald Trump signed a funding bill ending a 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. Because of the disruption, the BLS delayed the November CPI release from its original schedule earlier in December.

Fernandez pointed out that by the time government agencies resumed normal operations, nearly half of November had already passed. That means the CPI data largely reflect price movements from the latter part of the month. This raises questions about whether prices behave differently in the second half of a month compared with the first, potentially introducing bias into the figures.

In her assessment, the broader takeaway is likely to be that inflation remains elevated and is not clearly trending back toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, despite hopes from some market participants. Conflicting economic signals only add to the uncertainty.

Fernandez highlighted the mixed picture facing investors and policymakers alike: signs of softness in employment, household income, and consumer spending coexist with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth and rising revenues next year. These elements do not fully align, making it difficult to form a consistent long-term narrative.

Until more comprehensive and reliable data become available, she believes caution is warranted. Additional information will be needed before investors can confidently assess where inflation, growth, and monetary policy are truly headed over the longer term.