Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation Risks

President Trump’s claims of cooling inflation are challenged by renewed military tensions with Iran, causing instability in global oil markets. Rising crude prices raise concerns about inflation. The conflict’s duration will impact economic outcomes, as increased energy costs could exacerbate inflation or remain temporary, complicating the Federal Reserve’s decisions.

Trump’s Trade Strategy Post-Supreme Court Ruling

President Trump defended his tariff-driven strategy in his State of the Union address, despite a Supreme Court ruling limiting his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The administration adapted by implementing a new 10% universal tariff. This shift has created uncertainty in global markets and affected ongoing trade negotiations.

January Jobs Report Delay: What You Need to Know

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has rescheduled the January employment report to February 11, following a government shutdown. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey will now be released on February 9. Other economic indicators, including the consumer price index, are also delayed. Economists expect a rise in nonfarm payrolls by 60,000 jobs.

Trump to Announce New Fed Chair Tomorrow

President Donald Trump announced that the decision for the new Federal Reserve Chair is imminent, with an official reveal set for Friday. The selection process, which began in September, narrowed down potential candidates to four finalists, with Kevin Warsh currently leading in speculation. The new chair will significantly influence U.S. monetary policy.

AI spending wasn’t the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, despite popular assumptions

Recent research challenges the view that artificial intelligence (AI) is the main driver of U.S. economic growth. While AI contributed to GDP increases, consumer spending remains the primary engine. Adjustments for imports reveal AI’s impact on GDP is smaller than perceived, indicating that strong consumer activity will continue to support economic resilience.